Weighted Scenario Price Calculator
Inputs
Results
Weighted Average Price
$0.00
Upside / Downside
0.0%
Reference Used
Base Case
Disclaimer: This result is not a forecast or investment recommendation. It is a simple mechanistic calculation based entirely on the inputs you provided. Actual market outcomes may differ significantly.
Notes
This calculator helps you calculate the probability-weighted average price based on your scenarios.
- Bear Case: The pessimistic scenario.
- Base Case: The most likely scenario.
- Bull Case: The optimistic scenario.
The Weighted Price is the sum of each scenario's price multiplied by its probability.
If you provide a Current Market Price, the upside/downside is calculated relative to that. Otherwise, the Base Case price is used as the reference point to see how the weighted average differs from your base assumption.
Disclaimer: The results produced by this calculator should not be treated as a forecast or investment recommendation. This is a simple mechanistic model — the output is derived entirely from the prices and probabilities you provide. It does not account for market dynamics, external factors, or any real-world uncertainty beyond the scenarios you define.