Weighted Scenario Price Calculator

Inputs

0%
Total probability must be 100%.
Initializing calculator...

Results

Weighted Average Price

$0.00

Upside / Downside

0.0%

Reference Used

Base Case

Disclaimer: This result is not a forecast or investment recommendation. It is a simple mechanistic calculation based entirely on the inputs you provided. Actual market outcomes may differ significantly.

Notes

This calculator helps you calculate the probability-weighted average price based on your scenarios.

  • Bear Case: The pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The most likely scenario.
  • Bull Case: The optimistic scenario.

The Weighted Price is the sum of each scenario's price multiplied by its probability.

If you provide a Current Market Price, the upside/downside is calculated relative to that. Otherwise, the Base Case price is used as the reference point to see how the weighted average differs from your base assumption.

Disclaimer: The results produced by this calculator should not be treated as a forecast or investment recommendation. This is a simple mechanistic model — the output is derived entirely from the prices and probabilities you provide. It does not account for market dynamics, external factors, or any real-world uncertainty beyond the scenarios you define.