Indicator: Canada vs U.S. market index ratio (EWC / SPY)

Current value

0.0829

Updated 2026-03-18

Range

Min 0.0663

Max 0.0971

Mean 0.08

Percentiles

1Y 89%

5Y 64%

10Y 36%

Correlation

1Y 0.0113

5Y 0.0230

Full 0.0304

EWC vs SPY daily returns

Chart

Log

Relative move

-0.1%

5.3%

4.5%

ytd

14.1%

vs SPY — negative = EWC lagged

Market Regimes

Regime	Macro axis	Change	Min	Max	Mean	Corr
Dot-com bubble / TMT mania 1995-08 → 2000-03	liquidity/valuation expansion	-20.4%	0.09	0.18	0.13	0.0043
Dot-com bust / post-bubble disinflation scare 2000-03 → 2002-10	valuation compression/disinflation	-12.4%	0.08	0.14	0.1	0.0385
China-WTO / housing-credit / commodity boom 2002-10 → 2007-10	growth/credit expansion	+104.3%	0.1	0.23	0.15	0.0533
GFC / deleveraging / dollar shortage 2007-10 → 2009-03	credit stress/liquidity squeeze	+4.6%	0.17	0.26	0.22	0.0249
Policy-led rebound / euro-sovereign-crisis overlay 2009-03 → 2012-07	easing/backstop	-14.0%	0.18	0.28	0.23	0.0678
Secular stagnation / QE / low inflation / duration bull 2012-07 → 2020-02	disinflation/low rates	-57.8%	0.08	0.21	0.13	0.0341
Pandemic shock / liquidity crash 2020-02 → 2020-03	liquidity shock	+19.7%	0.07	0.1	0.08	-0.0749
Policy bazooka / monetary euphoria 2020-03 → 2020-11	liquidity impulse	-3.8%	0.08	0.1	0.08	-0.1630
Reopening reflation / fiscal boom / supply bottlenecks 2020-11 → 2021-11	growth reopening	-5.8%	0.08	0.09	0.09	0.1937
Inflation shock / duration crash / aggressive tightening 2021-11 → 2022-11	inflation shock	+14.6%	0.07	0.1	0.09	-0.0077
Disinflation rebound / AI-led narrow bull / higher-for-longer 2022-11 → 2024-09	disinflation + narrow equity leadership	-17.3%	0.07	0.09	0.08	0.0320
Disinflationary easing / resilient growth / AI capex under oil-shock test 2024-09 → now	disinflation under stress	+12.0%	0.07	0.09	0.07	0.0245

What is this indicator?

This indicator is a price ratio between iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). It is a quick way to compare the performance of Canada and US stock markets.

It is critical to understand that, as most of naive country-to-country indicators, it does not compare one economy to another. This is more about structural differences in the economies and market regimes.

More accurate way to view this indicator as Hard Assets vs. Intangible Assets.

The Canadian index is structurally "short" innovation and "long" traditional economy. It is dominated by companies that pull things out of the ground (Energy/Mining) and the banks that finance them. SPY is dominated by companies that write code and own IP.

When inflation expectations rise, future cash flows from Tech (SPY) get discounted heavily (bad for SPY), while current cash flows from Commodities (EWC) become more valuable.

This is a "Late Cycle" indicator. When the economy is overheating and inflation is sticky, capital rotates from Silicon Valley to the Canadian Oil Sands to hide.