Indicator: Germany vs U.S. market index ratio (EWG / SPY)

Current value

0.0601

Updated 2026-03-18

Range

Min 0.048

Max 0.0883

Mean 0.0651

Percentiles

1Y 6%

5Y 26%

10Y 13%

Correlation

1Y 0.0904

5Y 0.0271

Full 0.0241

EWG vs SPY daily returns

Chart

Log

Relative move

-6.2%

-3.0%

-2.6%

ytd

-9.1%

vs SPY — negative = EWG lagged

Market Regimes

Regime	Macro axis	Change	Min	Max	Mean	Corr
Dot-com bubble / TMT mania 1995-08 → 2000-03	liquidity/valuation expansion	-2.1%	0.15	0.22	0.19	0.0246
Dot-com bust / post-bubble disinflation scare 2000-03 → 2002-10	valuation compression/disinflation	-31.5%	0.1	0.2	0.14	0.0577
China-WTO / housing-credit / commodity boom 2002-10 → 2007-10	growth/credit expansion	+79.4%	0.1	0.24	0.16	0.0911
GFC / deleveraging / dollar shortage 2007-10 → 2009-03	credit stress/liquidity squeeze	-5.4%	0.15	0.25	0.22	-0.0651
Policy-led rebound / euro-sovereign-crisis overlay 2009-03 → 2012-07	easing/backstop	-27.3%	0.14	0.23	0.19	0.0567
Secular stagnation / QE / low inflation / duration bull 2012-07 → 2020-02	disinflation/low rates	-47.8%	0.08	0.18	0.13	0.0304
Pandemic shock / liquidity crash 2020-02 → 2020-03	liquidity shock	+23.8%	0.07	0.1	0.08	-0.0749
Policy bazooka / monetary euphoria 2020-03 → 2020-11	liquidity impulse	-1.2%	0.07	0.1	0.09	-0.1606
Reopening reflation / fiscal boom / supply bottlenecks 2020-11 → 2021-11	growth reopening	-20.6%	0.07	0.09	0.08	0.1510
Inflation shock / duration crash / aggressive tightening 2021-11 → 2022-11	inflation shock	-2.8%	0.05	0.07	0.06	-0.0030
Disinflation rebound / AI-led narrow bull / higher-for-longer 2022-11 → 2024-09	disinflation + narrow equity leadership	-6.6%	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.0320
Disinflationary easing / resilient growth / AI capex under oil-shock test 2024-09 → now	disinflation under stress	-0.3%	0.05	0.08	0.06	0.0697

What is this indicator?

As most of naive country-to-country indicators, it does not compare one economy to another. This is more about structural differences in the economies and market regimes.

Germany is the "Capex" (Capital Expenditure) king. Siemens, BASF, Daimler Truck—these companies sell the machines that make other things. SPY sells the software that runs the office.

This relies on the Global Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index).

PMI > 50 (Expanding): Factories are buying robots and chemicals. EWG outperforms.

PMI < 50 (Contracting): Factories cut spending immediately. EWG tanks. SPY is resilient because you can't cancel your Microsoft subscription as easily as you can delay buying a new turbine.

When to use it: This is a hedge funds "Global Growth" thermometer. If this ratio is diving, the global industrial economy is in a recession, even if the US consumer is still spending.