Indicator: Italy vs U.S. market index ratio (EWI / SPY)

Current value

0.0792

Updated 2026-03-18

Range

Min 0.0523

Max 0.089

Mean 0.0717

Percentiles

1Y 52%

5Y 89%

10Y 52%

Correlation

1Y 0.0563

5Y 0.0273

Full 0.0217

EWI vs SPY daily returns

Chart

Log

Relative move

-3.0%

-0.4%

0.2%

ytd

5.0%

vs SPY — negative = EWI lagged

Market Regimes

Regime	Macro axis	Change	Min	Max	Mean	Corr
Dot-com bubble / TMT mania 1995-08 → 2000-03	liquidity/valuation expansion	-23.8%	0.3	0.52	0.41	0.0039
Dot-com bust / post-bubble disinflation scare 2000-03 → 2002-10	valuation compression/disinflation	-1.0%	0.26	0.38	0.31	0.0409
China-WTO / housing-credit / commodity boom 2002-10 → 2007-10	growth/credit expansion	+33.6%	0.31	0.51	0.41	0.0770
GFC / deleveraging / dollar shortage 2007-10 → 2009-03	credit stress/liquidity squeeze	-19.9%	0.27	0.5	0.4	-0.0238
Policy-led rebound / euro-sovereign-crisis overlay 2009-03 → 2012-07	easing/backstop	-55.1%	0.14	0.41	0.28	0.0380
Secular stagnation / QE / low inflation / duration bull 2012-07 → 2020-02	disinflation/low rates	-48.0%	0.08	0.2	0.13	0.0232
Pandemic shock / liquidity crash 2020-02 → 2020-03	liquidity shock	+15.2%	0.07	0.09	0.08	-0.0749
Policy bazooka / monetary euphoria 2020-03 → 2020-11	liquidity impulse	-4.5%	0.06	0.09	0.08	-0.0644
Reopening reflation / fiscal boom / supply bottlenecks 2020-11 → 2021-11	growth reopening	-15.9%	0.07	0.08	0.08	0.1659
Inflation shock / duration crash / aggressive tightening 2021-11 → 2022-11	inflation shock	+7.7%	0.05	0.08	0.07	0.0005
Disinflation rebound / AI-led narrow bull / higher-for-longer 2022-11 → 2024-09	disinflation + narrow equity leadership	-1.8%	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.0480
Disinflationary easing / resilient growth / AI capex under oil-shock test 2024-09 → now	disinflation under stress	+14.2%	0.06	0.09	0.07	0.0396

What is this indicator?

As most of naive country-to-country indicators, it does not compare one economy to another. This is more about structural differences in the economies and market regimes.

Italy's index is effectively a leveraged bet on the solvency of the Eurozone. With massive weight in Banks (UniCredit, Intesa) and Utilities (Enel), it has almost no "Growth" component. It acts like a high-yield bond.

The related indicator is BTP-Bund Spread. This measures the difference in yield between Italian bonds and German bonds.

Spread Widens (Fear): EWI collapses faster than SPY.

Spread Narrows (Calm/Yield Hunting): Investors chase the high dividend yield of Italian banks, and EWI rockets up relative to SPY.

It closely related to European Central Bank (ECB) policy. If the ECB signals "we will support the bond market," hedge funds become more interested in buying the EWI.