Indicator: U.K. vs U.S. market index ratio (EWU / SPY)

Current value

0.0686

Updated 2026-03-18

Range

Min 0.0558

Max 0.0859

Mean 0.0712

Percentiles

1Y 81%

5Y 38%

10Y 19%

Correlation

1Y 0.0582

5Y 0.0266

Full 0.0318

EWU vs SPY daily returns

Chart

Log

Relative move

-1.5%

7.6%

7.3%

ytd

2.7%

vs SPY — negative = EWU lagged

Market Regimes

Regime	Macro axis	Change	Min	Max	Mean	Corr
Dot-com bubble / TMT mania 1995-08 → 2000-03	liquidity/valuation expansion	-24.8%	0.27	0.43	0.36	0.0066
Dot-com bust / post-bubble disinflation scare 2000-03 → 2002-10	valuation compression/disinflation	+6.5%	0.23	0.33	0.26	0.0393
China-WTO / housing-credit / commodity boom 2002-10 → 2007-10	growth/credit expansion	+14.4%	0.25	0.35	0.3	0.0763
GFC / deleveraging / dollar shortage 2007-10 → 2009-03	credit stress/liquidity squeeze	-11.7%	0.23	0.36	0.31	0.0212
Policy-led rebound / euro-sovereign-crisis overlay 2009-03 → 2012-07	easing/backstop	-15.5%	0.22	0.33	0.27	0.0584
Secular stagnation / QE / low inflation / duration bull 2012-07 → 2020-02	disinflation/low rates	-64.1%	0.09	0.26	0.17	0.0251
Pandemic shock / liquidity crash 2020-02 → 2020-03	liquidity shock	+23.2%	0.08	0.11	0.09	-0.0749
Policy bazooka / monetary euphoria 2020-03 → 2020-11	liquidity impulse	-17.8%	0.07	0.1	0.08	-0.1110
Reopening reflation / fiscal boom / supply bottlenecks 2020-11 → 2021-11	growth reopening	-13.5%	0.07	0.08	0.08	0.1799
Inflation shock / duration crash / aggressive tightening 2021-11 → 2022-11	inflation shock	+19.8%	0.06	0.09	0.08	-0.0033
Disinflation rebound / AI-led narrow bull / higher-for-longer 2022-11 → 2024-09	disinflation + narrow equity leadership	-16.8%	0.06	0.09	0.07	0.0261
Disinflationary easing / resilient growth / AI capex under oil-shock test 2024-09 → now	disinflation under stress	+3.0%	0.06	0.08	0.06	0.0556

What is this indicator?

The FTSE 100 is "Jurassic Park." It has almost no correlation to the modern AI economy. It is Oil (Shell/BP), Mining (Rio Tinto), Tobacco (BAT), and Pharma (AstraZeneca). These are "Inelastic Goods"—people need them regardless of the economy.

There is a huge difference in yield differential (which also makes long-term comparisons irrelevant). The UK market often yields 4%+, while SPY yields 1.3%.

When SPY crashes (Tech bubble bursts), capital rotates into EWU because it is "safe" and pays you to wait.

When SPY rallies, EWU looks like "dead money."

EWU is a hedge. If a hedge fund manager thinks the AI bubble is about to pop, they go Long EWU / Short SPY.